UBS asks:
What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Less Food and Energy (aka "Core") for July 2024?
Closed Aug 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
While the US inflation rate has come down from its peak in 2022, the pace of progress toward the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target has slowed (CNBC, Yahoo, Investopedia - Core Inflation). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2024 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for July 2024 when first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All Items Less Food and Energy" as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in August 2024 (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago"). As of the launch of this question, the change for July 2023 was 4.70760%.
This question is part of the 2024 UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Up by at least 3.200%, but less than 3.600%" with a closing date of 1 August 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Up by less than 2.000% or down | 0% | |
Up by at least 2.000%, but less than 2.400% | 0% | |
Up by at least 2.400%, but less than 2.800% | 0% | |
Up by at least 2.800%, but less than 3.200% | 39% | |
Up by at least 3.200%, but less than 3.600% | 60% | |
Up by at least 3.600%, but less than 4.000% | 1% | |
Up by at least 4.000%, but less than 4.400% | 0% | |
Up by 4.400% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 45 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 186 | |
Number of Forecasts | 197 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 539 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |