UBS asks:

What will be the Federal Reserve's median projection for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation for 2024 in its June 2024 projection materials?

Started Apr 10, 2024 02:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 12, 2024 07:01AM UTC

In the Federal Reserve's projection materials released on 20 March 2024, the median projection for PCE inflation for 2024 (specifically, "percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year") was 2.4%, the same as it was in projections released in December 2023 for 2024 (Federal Reserve - FOMC Projection Materials March 2024, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 11 June 2024 and the outcome determined using the next projection materials released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), expected on the second day of its two-day meeting scheduled for 11-12 June 2024 (Federal Reserve).

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The question closed "More than 2.4%, but at most 2.6%" with a closing date of 12 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 2.2% 1%
At least 2.2%, but less than 2.4% 3%
2.4% 40%
More than 2.4%, but at most 2.6% 53%
Higher than 2.6% 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 29
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 91
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.077219
3.
-0.05399
4.
-0.051108
5.
-0.028695

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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