Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?

Started Sep 14, 2015 08:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 10.00%
No 90.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 672
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 3224
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.248341
2.
-0.246964
3.
-0.246015
4.
-0.246015
5.
-0.246015

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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