Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Chad join the Alliance of Sahel States ("L'Alliance des États du Sahel" in French, or AES) before 1 October 2024?

Started Apr 19, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger formed the AES in September 2023 as a mutual defense pact among the military-controlled countries (France 24, AP). Chad and Mauritania took steps in December 2023 to dissolve an older security alliance, the G5 Sahel, after Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger withdrew from that group (Al Jazeera, Critical Threats). A public announcement from the government of Chad that it has joined the AES will count. Chad signing an instrument of membership to the AES will count, irrespective of when Chad's membership would take effect. Some form of subordinate membership (e.g., observer status) will not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4%
No 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 117
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.183085
3.
-0.18132
4.
-0.178104
5.
-0.178064

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username