Between 19 April 2024 and 5 November 2024, will there be a coordinated terrorist attack in the US resulting in at least three fatalities?

Started Apr 19, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2024 08:01AM UTC

In the wake of the March 2024 theater attack in Russia, the FBI is concerned about a similar attack happening in the US (The Hill). For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5), though actual charges being brought is immaterial (Cornell - 18 U.S.C. § 2331). An attack will be considered "coordinated" if two or more people are directly involved in the execution of the attack (e.g., the 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, the 2015 San Bernardino office attack). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count, and attribution or claims of responsibility are immaterial. "The US" means any US state or the District of Columbia, as well as the territorial waters of the US adjacent to a US state. The hijacking or bombing of an aircraft will count if the aircraft last took flight from the US or fatalities occur within the territory or airspace of the US.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 6 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3%
No 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 69
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 232
Average for questions older than 6 months: 541
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.056132
2.
-0.056132
3.
-0.055425
4.
-0.055143
5.
-0.054946

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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