UBS asks:
What will be the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for new, privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in the US in July 2024?
Closed Aug 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
With mortgage rates remaining elevated as the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at multidecade highs, housing construction has remained well below 2021-22 levels (US News & World Report, Yahoo [Zacks], Investopedia - SAAR). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2024 and the outcome determined using Census Bureau data as first reported for July 2024 by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in August 2024 (FRED, Census.gov - Survey of Construction Release Schedule). In July 2023, the number of units was 1,443 thousand, or 1.443 million.
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The question closed "At least 1.3 million, but fewer than 1.4 million" with a closing date of 1 August 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 1.3 million | 3% | |
| At least 1.3 million, but fewer than 1.4 million | 67% | |
| At least 1.4 million, but fewer than 1.5 million | 29% | |
| At least 1.5 million, but fewer than 1.6 million | 1% | |
| 1.6 million or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 28 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 186 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 93 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 539 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
