Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 4.0% before 2 November 2024?
Closed Nov 02, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Despite stresses in the US banking system, borrowing costs for "high-yield" bonds (aka junk bonds) have trended down in the past 12 months (Yahoo [Reuters], Business Times, Yahoo [PitchBook], Investopedia - High-Yield Bond). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread" (FRED). For 22 April 2024, the spread was 3.29%.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 2 November 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | |
| No | 98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 21 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 143 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
