UBS asks:
What will be the closing price for the September 2024 futures contract for arabica coffee on 16 August 2024, according to the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)?
Closed Aug 16, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Coffee prices have risen substantially in 2024 due to supply concerns (MSN [Business Insider], NASDAQ [Barchart]). The two main types of coffee produced commercially are arabica and robusta, with the latter reaching all-time highs in April 2024 (MSN [Barchart], AP). The question will be suspended on 15 August 2024 and the outcome determined using price data as reported in the US (your location in the world may impact how the site dates prices) by ICE (ICE, set to "3 MONTHS"). The closing price on 25 April 2024 was 226.300.
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The question closed "At least $230, but less than $250" with a closing date of 16 August 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than $190 | 0% | |
| At least $190, but less than $210 | 0% | |
| At least $210, but less than $230 | 9% | |
| At least $230, but less than $250 | 91% | |
| At least $250, but less than $270 | 0% | |
| At least $270, but less than $290 | 0% | |
| At least $290, but less than $310 | 0% | |
| $310 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 33 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 238 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
