Before 5 November 2024, will daily transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz be below 25 for two consecutive days, according to the IMF?
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
As tensions between Iran and various actors remain high, there is fear that it could attempt to halt critical energy shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (CNBC, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the IMF's PortWatch (PortWatch, see "Transit Calls" chart, which includes export options). As of the launch of this question, PortWatch reported the lowest number of transit calls for a single day at 13 on 12 May 2022, though there were 107 on 11 May 2022 and 92 on 13 May 2022. A static file with data for 1 January 2019 to 23 April 2024 may be downloaded here: xlsx Download.
NOTE 16 August 2024: IMF data for 12 May 2022 have been revised since the launch of this question. As of 16 August 2024, the total number of transit calls for 12 May 2022 is now reported as 109.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | |
| No | 96% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 30 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 88 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
