Before 1 December 2024, will Russia or Belarus detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian and Belarusian territory or airspace?

Started May 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

As Ukraine continues to fight against Russia's invasion of their country and increases attacks in Russia itself, concerns persist that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (AP, Newsweek, CBS News). Russian and Belarusian territory and airspace include that within the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including territorial waters. For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). A device that produces an explosive detonation for a sub-critical test is not considered a "nuclear device" that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 136
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 395
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.00019
2.
-0.00019
3.
-0.00019
4.
-0.00019
5.
-0.00019

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username