Before 1 December 2024, will Russia or Belarus detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian and Belarusian territory or airspace?
Closed Dec 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
As Ukraine continues to fight against Russia's invasion of their country and increases attacks in Russia itself, concerns persist that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (AP, Newsweek, CBS News). Russian and Belarusian territory and airspace include that within the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including territorial waters. For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). A device that produces an explosive detonation for a sub-critical test is not considered a "nuclear device" that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | |
No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 136 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 395 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |