Which US presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania?
Started
May 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
The 2024 race for the White House will be decided in battleground states (RealClearPolling, 270 to Win). The outcome will be determined based on which candidate wins the popular vote in the state.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "The Republican Party candidate" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| The Democratic Party candidate | 54% | |
| The Republican Party candidate | 46% | |
| Someone else | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 130 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 441 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
