UBS asks:

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 16 August 2024?

Started May 08, 2024 02:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 16, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia - S&P 500). The question will be suspended on 15 August 2024 and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED).

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The question closed "At least 5,400, but less than 5,600" with a closing date of 16 August 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 4,200 0%
At least 4,200, but less than 4,400 0%
At least 4,400, but less than 4,600 3%
At least 4,600, but less than 4,800 1%
At least 4,800, but less than 5,000 0%
At least 5,000, but less than 5,200 1%
At least 5,200, but less than 5,400 10%
At least 5,400, but less than 5,600 74%
At least 5,600, but less than 5,800 10%
At least 5,800, but less than 6,000 1%
6,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 71
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 166
Number of Forecasts 521
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 435
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.051151
2.
-0.050355
3.
-0.046661
4.
-0.043508
5.
-0.03795

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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