UBS asks:
Will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español, or PSOE) be more popular in Spain than the People's Party (Partido Popular, or PP) as of 7 August 2024, according to Politico?
Closed Aug 07, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the PSOE announced on 29 April 2024 that he would not step down in the wake of a Spanish court opening an investigation into his wife for corruption (CNN, El País). The question will be suspended on 6 August 2024 and the outcome determined using data as provided in Politico's "Poll of Polls" page for Spain once data for 7 August 2024 are first available (Politico, use default "Smooth" view). Whether elections are called early and/or take place during the question's open period is immaterial.
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The question closed "No, the PSOE and PP will be tied or the PP will be more popular by no more than 5%" with a closing date of 7 August 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, by more than 5% | 2% | |
| Yes, by more than 0% but no more than 5% | 5% | |
| No, the PSOE and PP will be tied or the PP will be more popular by no more than 5% | 92% | |
| No, the PP will be more popular by more than 5% | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 36 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 168 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 141 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 438 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
