What will be the "net sympathy" among Americans for Israelis versus Palestinians in 2025, according to Gallup's World Affairs survey?

Started May 10, 2024 05:00PM
Closed Feb 7, 2025 08:01AM (2 months ago)

Support for Israel among Americans has eroded as fighting in Gaza continues (Newsweek, ABC News). The question will be suspended on 7 February 2025 and the outcome determined using survey data as reported by Gallup, expected in the first quarter of 2025 (Gallup - Middle East). The "net sympathy" will be calculated by subtracting the "more sympathetic" percentage for Palestinians from the "more sympathetic" percentage for Israelis. In 2024, "more sympathies" for Israel was 51%, and for Palestinians 27%, creating a "net sympathy" for Israelis of 24 points. The full question posed by Gallup has historically been, "In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians?"

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The question closed "At least 12 points, but fewer than 20 points" with a closing date of 16 February 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 12 points or negative 8%
At least 12 points, but fewer than 20 points 29%
At least 20 points, but fewer than 28 points 44%
At least 28 points, but fewer than 36 points 15%
36 points or more 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 131
Average for questions older than 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 411
Average for questions older than 6 months: 525
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.195608
3.
-0.174817
4.
-0.165221
5.
-0.160271

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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