Will Saudi Arabia's holdings of US treasury securities dip below $50 billion before 1 June 2017?

Started Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC

Saudi Arabia warned of economic fallout from the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, which Congress passed over the president's veto on September 28, 2016 (NY Times, Salon, Washington Post). The treasury holdings of foreign countries, including Saudi Arabia, are tracked by the Department of Treasury on a monthly basis: US Department of the Treasury. The government of Saudi Arabia held $93 billion in Treasury holdings in August 2016. If the question has not already resolved, it will be suspended on 31 May 2017 and closed when the May data are released, typically in mid July. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether Russia will allow Turkish citizens to travel to Russia without a visa, or whether Saudi Arabia will list shares of Saudi Aramco in an initial public offering before 1 January 2018. According to the Treasury International Capital, Saudi Arabia's holdings of US treasury securities never dipped below $50 billion. This question has been closed a "b) No" with a closing date of 31 May 2017.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 267
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 854
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.024034
2.
-0.023471
3.
-0.023176
4.
-0.021577
5.
-0.020467

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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