UBS asks:

What will be the closing value of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index on 16 August 2024?

Started May 16, 2024 02:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 16, 2024 07:01AM UTC

In February 2024, China replaced the head of its regulatory body in charge of stock exchanges as hopes of government stimulus hastened a rebound from multiyear lows (AP, US News & World Report, Yahoo [Bloomberg]). The question will be suspended on 15 August 2024 and the outcome determined using data reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set chart to "6M"). On 13 May 2024, the closing value of the Shanghai Composite Index was 3,148.02.

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The question closed "At least 2,700, but less than 2,900" with a closing date of 16 August 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2,700 1%
At least 2,700, but less than 2,900 86%
At least 2,900, but less than 3,100 13%
At least 3,100, but less than 3,300 0%
At least 3,300, but less than 3,500 0%
At least 3,500, but less than 3,700 0%
At least 3,700, but less than 3,900 0%
3,900 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 33
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 168
Number of Forecasts 196
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 438
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.186313
2.
-0.180387
3.
-0.173423
4.
-0.154652
5.
-0.058329

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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