UBS asks:
What will be the closing value of the US dollar to new Israeli shekel exchange rate on 16 August 2024?
Closed Aug 16, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The new Israeli shekel has recovered from multiyear low in the wake of Hamas' attack in the country, but the war is still weighing heavily on the Israeli economy (Yahoo [Bloomberg], US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 15 August 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported in the US by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set to "6M"). On 9 May 2024, the closing value was 3.72295.
This question is part of the 2024 UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "At least 3.60, but less than 3.80" with a closing date of 16 August 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 3.20 | 1% | |
At least 3.20, but less than 3.40 | 0% | |
At least 3.40, but less than 3.60 | 2% | |
At least 3.60, but less than 3.80 | 94% | |
At least 3.80, but less than 4.00 | 3% | |
At least 4.00, but less than 4.20 | 0% | |
4.20 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 37 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 217 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |