Zauchka asks:

Will Valery Gerasimov cease to be the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces before 5 November 2024?

Started May 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced Sergei Shoigu as defense minister and appointed Andrei Belousov, a civilian economist, as his replacement (CNN). At the same time, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that General Valery Gerasimov will continue as the Chief of the General Staff (AP).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 53
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 290
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.649122
2.
-0.646506
3.
-0.637924
4.
-0.632965
5.
-0.583709

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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