JMcW and SharpEdge ask:

How many debates between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will take place before 25 October 2024?

Started May 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 25, 2024 07:01AM UTC

President Biden surprised many by offering to debate Donald Trump twice, to which Trump agreed and with the first before either major US party formally nominates its candidate for president (The Hill, CNN). A debate must be in person to count, and the presence of other presidential candidates is immaterial. Whether either or both men are actually nominated by their respected parties is immaterial.

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The question closed "1" with a closing date of 25 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 5%
1 94%
2 0%
3 or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 113
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 330
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.112882
2.
-0.088323
3.
-0.080916
4.
-0.063855
5.
-0.060274

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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