How many seats will the Conservative Party win in the next UK general election?
Started
May 22, 2024 05:30PM
Closed Jul 4, 2024 07:01AM (9 months ago)
Closed Jul 4, 2024 07:01AM (9 months ago)
Challenges
The next UK general election is scheduled to be held on 4 July 2024 (BBC, Guardian).
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The question closed "Fewer than 138 seats" with a closing date of 4 July 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 138 seats | 87% | |
| At least 138 seats, but fewer than 185 seats | 12% | |
| At least 185 seats, but fewer than 232 seats | 1% | |
| At least 232 seats, but fewer than 279 seats | 0% | |
| At least 279 seats, but fewer than 326 seats | 0% | |
| 326 seats or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 65 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 180 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 299 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 526 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jun 11, 2024 9:12AM PDT (23 days before close, question was 47% complete)