What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for September 2024?
Closed Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The US unemployment rate has remained near historic lows in the Spring of 2024 despite multidecade highs in interest rates (CNN, AP). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2024 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database when first released, expected in October 2024 (FRED).
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The question closed "At least 3.9%, but less than 4.2%" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 3.6% | 1% | |
| At least 3.6%, but less than 3.9% | 1% | |
| At least 3.9%, but less than 4.2% | 26% | |
| At least 4.2%, but less than 4.5% | 70% | |
| At least 4.5%, but less than 4.8% | 2% | |
| At least 4.8%, but less than 5.1% | 0% | |
| At least 5.1%, but less than 5.4% | 0% | |
| 5.4% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 45 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 226 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
