How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in the third quarter of 2024?
Closed Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The average age of vehicles on US roads hit a record of 12.6 years in 2024 as interest rates and auto prices temper demand for new vehicles (Voice of America). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2024 and the outcome determined by adding monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis for July, August, and September 2024 as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once September 2024 data are first available, expected in October 2024 (FRED). As of the launch of this question, a total of 4.088253 million vehicles were sold in the third quarter of 2023.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "At least 3.9 million, but fewer than 4.2 million" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 3.6 million | 0% | |
| At least 3.6 million, but fewer than 3.9 million | 5% | |
| At least 3.9 million, but fewer than 4.2 million | 74% | |
| At least 4.2 million, but fewer than 4.5 million | 19% | |
| At least 4.5 million, but fewer than 4.8 million | 1% | |
| 4.8 million or more | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 40 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 154 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
