How many Artistic Gymnastics medals will American gymnast Simone Biles win in the 2024 Olympics?

Started May 31, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 05, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Simone Biles, one of the most decorated gymnasts in the history of the sport, may break a few records during competition in the 2024 Paris Olympics (NBC). Whether a medal is won in an individual or team event is immaterial. The Women’s Artistic Gymnastics events are scheduled to conclude on 5 August 2024 (Olympics.com).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "3 or 4" with a closing date of 5 August 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 0%
1 or 2 0%
3 or 4 29%
5 or more 71%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 29
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 168
Number of Forecasts 129
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 438
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.133784
2.
-0.113836
3.
-0.045268
4.
-0.041868
5.
-0.033154

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username