Captbullett asks:
Will Donald Trump be sentenced to serve time in prison for his New York state conviction on falsifying business records?
Closed Jul 02, 2024 07:00PM UTC
On 30 May 2024, Trump was convicted on 34 felony charges related to falsifying business records, after which the judge scheduled a sentencing hearing for 11 July 2024 (ABC News, Axios). A prison sentence fully suspended by the trial court judge will not count as being sentenced to serve time in prison (Cornell - Suspended Sentence). The question will close early if the judge in the case postpones the sentencing hearing to a date after 9 August 2024.
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As Judge Merchan postponed the sentencing hearing to a date after 9 August 2024, the question closed "Trump will not be sentenced for the conviction before 10 August 2024" with a closing date of 2 July 2024 (Judge Merchan Letter).
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes, and he will not be granted bail pending appeal | 2% | |
Yes, but he will be granted bail pending appeal | 23% | |
No | 55% | |
Trump will not be sentenced for the conviction before 10 August 2024 | 20% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 91 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 147 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |