What percentage of the vote will the Democratic candidate win in the US Senate election for New Jersey in 2024?
Started
Jun 07, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Representative Andy Kim won New Jersey's Democratic Senate primary on 4 June 2024, but incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, who is under indictment for corruption, has registered to run as an independent (Politico, CNN).
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The question closed "More than 50.0% but less than 54.0%" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% or less and will not win the election | 1% | |
| 50.0% or less but will win the election | 1% | |
| More than 50.0% but less than 54.0% | 20% | |
| 54.0% or more | 78% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 33 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 146 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
