Foxes ask:
What will be the level of accuracy achieved by the first prize winner in the 2024 ARC Prize artificial general intelligence competition?
Closing Nov 11, 2024 08:01AM UTC
ARC Prize, Inc. is an organization sponsoring a competition for new AI systems and measuring their accuracy using the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus for Artificial General Intelligence (ARC-AGI) benchmark (ARC Prize - Competition). Per ARC Prize, Inc., "Humans easily score 85% in ARC, whereas the best AI systems only score 34%" (Kaggle - ARC Prize 2024, ARC Prize - ARC). The question will be suspended on 10 November 2024 and the outcome determined once the winners are announced. If the organizers postpone the deadline, the closing date will be rescheduled accordingly.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 40% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.00% |
| At least 40%, but less than 55% | 37.00% | -5.00% | -36.00% | -47.00% |
| At least 55%, but less than 70% | 61.00% | +5.00% | +35.00% | +49.00% |
| At least 70%, but less than 85% | 2.00% | 0% | +1.00% | 0% |
| 85% or higher | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.00% |