How many gold medals will the United States win in Athletics events, which includes track and field events, at the 2024 Olympics?

Started Jun 21, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 10, 2024 05:00PM UTC

Athletics events generally include running, jumping, and throwing events (NBC). At the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, the US won 7 gold medals, down from 13 in the 2016 Olympics (Olympedia, set "By sport" to "AT - Athletics" and "By Games" to the pertinent year). Athletics events are scheduled for 1-11 August 2024 (Olympics.com).

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The question closed "13 or more" with a closing date of 10 August 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
6 or fewer 0%
Between 7 and 9 9%
Between 10 and 12 49%
13 or more 42%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 20
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 139
Number of Forecasts 105
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 315
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.515297
2.
-0.39852
3.
-0.140364
4.
-0.127605
5.
-0.090559

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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