How many gold medals will China win in the 2024 Olympics?
Closed Aug 10, 2024 05:00PM UTC
China is expected to be a top competitor at the 2024 Paris Olympics, though its image has been tarnished by a new doping scandal (NBC New York, AP). The 2024 Paris Olympics are scheduled for 26 July through 11 August 2024 (Olympics.com). Whether an athlete is stripped of a medal after the conclusion of the 2024 Olympics is immaterial.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "38 or more" with a closing date of 10 August 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 25 or fewer | 0% | |
| Between 26 and 29 | 2% | |
| Between 30 and 33 | 8% | |
| Between 34 and 37 | 60% | |
| 38 or more | 30% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 28 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 166 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 170 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 435 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
