How many gold medals will China win in the 2024 Olympics?

Started Jun 21, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 10, 2024 05:00PM UTC

China is expected to be a top competitor at the 2024 Paris Olympics, though its image has been tarnished by a new doping scandal (NBC New York, AP). The 2024 Paris Olympics are scheduled for 26 July through 11 August 2024 (Olympics.com). Whether an athlete is stripped of a medal after the conclusion of the 2024 Olympics is immaterial.

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The question closed "38 or more" with a closing date of 10 August 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
25 or fewer 0%
Between 26 and 29 2%
Between 30 and 33 8%
Between 34 and 37 60%
38 or more 30%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 28
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 170
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.406095
2.
-0.331034
3.
-0.261501
4.
-0.131745
5.
-0.093762

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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