Who will win the election for Arizona's 1st Congressional District in 2024?

Started Jun 21, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Republicans fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).

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The question closed "The Republican Party candidate" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The Democratic Party candidate 58%
The Republican Party candidate 42%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 36
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 105
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.436293
2.
-0.385501
3.
-0.316812
4.
-0.273875
5.
-0.135819

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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