How many gold medals will American swimmer Katie Ledecky win in the 2024 Olympics?

Started Jun 28, 2024 05:00PM
Closed Aug 3, 2024 07:01AM (8 months ago)

Katie Ledecky, one of the most decorated swimmers in Olympics history, hopes to, among other things, become the first female swimmer to win the 800m freestyle four consecutive times with a gold in the 2024 Paris Olympics (NBC). Whether a medal is won in an individual or team event is immaterial. The final for the last event for which Ledecky has qualified is scheduled for 3 August 2024 (Olympics.com). Ledecky has qualified for five events, but is expected to only compete in four (NBC Los Angeles).

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The question closed "2" with a closing date of 3 August 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 1%
1 19%
2 45%
3 19%
4 or more 16%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 41
Average for questions older than 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 129
Average for questions older than 6 months: 526
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.128803
2.
-0.127349
3.
-0.101783
4.
-0.100169
5.
-0.098753

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jul 16, 2024 7:17PM PDT (18 days before close, question was 50% complete)
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