In how many jurisdictions (50 states plus the District of Columbia) will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win at least 5% of the votes cast for US president?
Started
Jun 28, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
The question will be suspended on 4 November 2024 and the outcome determined using election results as reported by the Associated Press. If the outcome appears dependent on the disposition of legal disputes as to the validity of certain votes in a jurisdiction or jurisdictions, we will wait for the judicial outcomes of those disputes before resolving the question.
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The question closed "None" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| None | 92% | |
| Between 1 and 9 | 7% | |
| Between 10 and 18 | 1% | |
| Between 19 and 27 | 0% | |
| Between 28 and 36 | 0% | |
| Between 37 and 45 | 0% | |
| 46 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 71 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 247 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
