What will be the Federal Reserve's median projection for the federal funds rate for 2025 in its September 2024 projection materials?
Closed Sep 18, 2024 07:01AM UTC
In the Federal Reserve's projection materials released on 12 June 2024, the median projection for the federal funds rate for 2025 (specifically, "value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year") was 4.1%, up from the 3.9% projection released in March 2024 (Federal Reserve - FOMC Projection Materials June 2024, see "Table 1," Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 17 September 2024 and the outcome determined using the next projection materials released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), expected on the second day of its two-day meeting scheduled for 17-18 September 2024 (Federal Reserve).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Lower than 3.9%" with a closing date of 18 September 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 3.9% | 12% | |
| At least 3.9%, but less than 4.1% | 32% | |
| 4.1% | 40% | |
| More than 4.1%, but at most 4.3% | 12% | |
| Higher than 4.3% | 4% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 23 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 138 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 93 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 314 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
