Will the World Health Organization (WHO) declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 1 July 2025?
Closed Aug 14, 2024 05:30PM UTC
A PHEIC is defined by WHO as "an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response" under International Health Regulations, with recent examples including COVID-19, Monkeypox, and wild polio (International Health Regulations 2005, linked here under publications - WHO - International Health Regulations, International Health Regulations - Annex II, Pan American Health Organization, NPR).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 14 August 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 41% | |
| No | 59% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 46 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 73 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
