When will the Democratic Party officially nominate its candidate for president in the 2024 US presidential election?
Closed Aug 06, 2024 04:00AM UTC
As post-debate speculation swirls on whether the Democratic Party will nominate Joe Biden as its candidate for president, the party is reportedly moving forward with plans to officially nominate Biden before its scheduled 19-22 August 2024 convention (Newsweek, MSNBC, Axios).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Before 19 August 2024, and the candidate will be nominated in the first vote" with a closing date of 5 August 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 19 August 2024, and the candidate will be nominated in the first vote | 87% | |
| Before 19 August 2024, but the candidate will not be nominated in the first vote | 1% | |
| Between 19 August 2024 and 22 August 2024, and the candidate will be nominated in the first vote | 11% | |
| Between 19 August 2024 and 22 August 2024, but the candidate will not be nominated in the first vote | 1% | |
| The Democratic Party will not officially nominate its candidate for president before 23 August 2024 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 66 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 166 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 211 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 435 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
