Will Maia Sandu win reelection in the 2024 Moldovan presidential election?

Started Jul 12, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 03, 2024 07:01AM UTC

In May 2024, the Moldovan parliament voted to hold both its next presidential election and a constitutional referendum on the country joining the EU on 20 October 2024 (Yahoo [Reuters], Balkan Insight, Moldovan Constitutional Court [in Romanian]). If no candidate wins an absolute majority in the presidential election, a runoff is to be held two weeks later (Constitution of Moldova, see Article 78, Presidency of the Republic of Moldova). Under Moldovan electoral law, an election or a referendum must have voter turnout of at least one-third for the result to be valid (one-fifth for a second round of the presidential election) (New Eastern Europe, Moldovan Central Electoral Commission, see Articles 151 and 211). If turnout is under one-third for the presidential election and/or the referendum (one-fifth for a second round of the presidential election), the election and/or referendum under the turnout minimum will not count, and any calling of a new election or referendum due to turnout failures is immaterial. If Maia Sandu ceases to be a candidate for president, her name will not be replaced in this question. If the election and referendum are not held in 2024, the question will close "No, and the constitutional referendum on joining the EU will not be approved."

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The question closed "Yes, and the constitutional referendum on joining the EU will be approved" with a closing date of 3 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and the constitutional referendum on joining the EU will be approved 93%
Yes, but the constitutional referendum on joining the EU will not be approved 1%
No, but the constitutional referendum on joining the EU will be approved 6%
No, and the constitutional referendum on joining the EU will not be approved 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 31
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 164
Number of Forecasts 83
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 431
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.024453
2.
-0.024453
4.
-0.024453
5.
-0.022525

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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