When will American journalist Evan Gershkovich leave Russia?
Closed Aug 01, 2024 03:00PM UTC
The espionage trial for Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who was arrested in Russia on 29 March 2023, began in June 2024 (Politico, US Embassy & Consulates in Russia). US officials have said that there have been discussions with Russia on a possible prisoner exchange (MSN [Wall Street Journal], PBS). Gershkovich must leave Russia alive to count.
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The question closed "Before 5 November 2024" with a closing date of 1 August 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 5 November 2024 | 81% | |
| Between 5 November 2024 and 19 January 2025 | 4% | |
| Between 20 January 2025 and 31 March 2025 | 9% | |
| Not before 1 April 2025 | 5% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 29 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 161 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 70 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 426 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
