Between 1 July 2024 and 31 December 2024, how many total fatalities will occur in Somalia due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
As existing peacekeeping missions in Somalia wind down, fears of a resurgence of Al-Shabaab are pushing regional leaders to evaluate next steps in the war-ravaged country (US News & World Report, First Post). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Explorer (ACLED). On the left side of the screen, (1) select "Fatality Counts," (2) select "All Event Types," (3) select "Custom Date Range" and set the date range as appropriate, (4) select only "Africa," (5) select only "Somalia," (6) select "No," (7) select "Country," (8) select "No," (9) select "No," (10) select "Yes" and choose "Month," and click "Run Calculations." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 2,838 total fatalities in Somalia in the first half (1 January through 30 June) of 2024. Data will be accessed for resolution no sooner than 17 January 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 2,000 | 9.00% | -0.20% | +0.20% | -0.50% |
| At least 2,000, but fewer than 3,200 | 46.40% | +0.60% | +0.70% | +6.40% |
| At least 3,200, but fewer than 4,400 | 34.10% | 0% | -0.40% | +1.30% |
| At least 4,400, but fewer than 5,600 | 8.20% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -2.90% |
| At least 5,600, but fewer than 6,800 | 1.30% | -0.20% | -0.30% | -2.70% |
| At least 6,800, but fewer than 8,000 | 0.40% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.60% |
| At least 8,000, but fewer than 10,000 | 0.40% | 0% | 0% | -0.40% |
| 10,000 or more | 0.20% | 0% | 0% | -0.60% |