Between 1 July 2024 and 31 December 2024, how many total fatalities will occur in Myanmar due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Myanmar has been gripped by civil war since its most recent military coup in 2021 (AP, PBS, Deutsche Welle). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Explorer (ACLED). On the left side of the screen, (1) select "Fatality Counts," (2) select "All Event Types," (3) select "Custom Date Range" and set the date range as appropriate, (4) select only "Asia-Pacific," (5) select only "Myanmar," (6) select "No," (7) select "Country," (8) select "No," (9) select "No," (10) select "Yes" and choose "Month," and click "Run Calculations." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 7,825 total fatalities in Myanmar in the first half (1 January through 30 June) of 2024. Data will be accessed for resolution no sooner than 17 January 2025.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 4,500 | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.50% |
| At least 4,500, but fewer than 6,000 | 5.50% | 0% | -0.60% | +4.50% |
| At least 6,000, but fewer than 7,500 | 34.40% | 0% | +5.00% | +25.40% |
| At least 7,500, but fewer than 9,000 | 47.40% | 0% | -6.70% | -2.70% |
| At least 9,000, but fewer than 10,500 | 11.70% | 0% | +3.40% | -12.90% |
| At least 10,500, but fewer than 12,000 | 0.80% | 0% | -0.90% | -10.70% |
| At least 12,000, but fewer than 13,500 | 0.10% | 0% | -0.20% | -2.50% |
| 13,500 or more | 0.10% | 0% | 0% | -0.60% |