When will Kimberly Cheatle either cease to be the Director of the US Secret Service or announce her retirement or resignation?
Started
Jul 15, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 23, 2024 02:30PM UTC
Closed Jul 23, 2024 02:30PM UTC
Challenges
The Secret Service is under scrutiny after a failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump at a Pennsylvania rally on 13 July 2024 (CNN, Axios, The Hill). The date an announced retirement or resignation will take effect is immaterial so long as a specific time period is mentioned (e.g., 20 December 2024, "by the end of the month," "after the election").
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The question closed "Before 19 August 2024" with a closing date of 23 July 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 19 August 2024 | 62% | |
| Between 19 August 2024 and 20 September 2024 | 11% | |
| Between 21 September 2024 and 4 November 2024 | 6% | |
| Not before 5 November 2024 | 21% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 53 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 161 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 115 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 426 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
