Before 21 September 2024, will the Supreme Court grant either a stay or injunctive relief against the State of New York related to the state's conviction or sentencing of Donald Trump?
Closed Aug 05, 2024 06:30PM UTC
On 3 July 2024, Missouri filed a lawsuit with the US Supreme Court against New York for "violating Missourians’ First Amendment right to hear from a presidential candidate in the 2024 presidential election" (Missouri Attorney General, The Hill, Supreme Court Docket - Missouri v. New York). On 12 July 2024, the Supreme Court gave New York until 24 July 2024 to file responses (Supreme Court Order - 12 July 2024). A stay or any form of injunction will count, including as to gag orders (Cornell - Stay, Cornell - Injunction). The question will close early if the Supreme Court denies Missouri's motion for a bill of complaint or otherwise dismisses the proceedings initiated by Missouri (Congress.gov - US Constitution Article III, §2, Clause 1 Annotated).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 August 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 31% | |
| No | 69% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 43 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 161 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 64 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 426 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |
