When will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sign or announce an agreement to end their current conflict in Sudan?
Closed Apr 15, 2025 07:01AM (11 days ago)
Fighting has continued between the SAF and RSF since 15 April 2023, and efforts to find a peace agreement have not borne fruit (US News & World Report, The New Arab, Middle East Monitor). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both the SAF and RSF to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Sudan. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.
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The question closed "Not before 15 April 2025" with a closing date of 15 April 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 17 October 2024 | 1% | |
| Between 17 October 2024 and 14 January 2025 | 1% | |
| Between 15 January 2025 and 14 April 2025 | 4% | |
| Not before 15 April 2025 | 94% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 55 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 178 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 176 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 519 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |
