When will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sign or announce an agreement to end their current conflict in Sudan?
Closing Apr 15, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Fighting has continued between the SAF and RSF since 15 April 2023, and efforts to find a peace agreement have not borne fruit (US News & World Report, The New Arab, Middle East Monitor). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both the SAF and RSF to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Sudan. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 17 October 2024 | 1.80% | +0.10% | -0.90% | +0.30% |
| Between 17 October 2024 and 14 January 2025 | 9.20% | +0.50% | +0.90% | -4.20% |
| Between 15 January 2025 and 14 April 2025 | 15.50% | +0.50% | +1.80% | -2.00% |
| Not before 15 April 2025 | 73.50% | -1.10% | -1.80% | +5.90% |