Fighting has continued between the SAF and RSF since 15 April 2023, and efforts to find a peace agreement have not borne fruit (US News & World Report, The New Arab, Middle East Monitor). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both the SAF and RSF to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Sudan. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.