When will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sign or announce an agreement to end their current conflict in Sudan?
Started
Jul 19, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 15, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Closing Apr 15, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
Fighting has continued between the SAF and RSF since 15 April 2023, and efforts to find a peace agreement have not borne fruit (US News & World Report, The New Arab, Middle East Monitor). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both the SAF and RSF to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Sudan. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 17 October 2024 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Between 17 October 2024 and 14 January 2025 | 1.20% | 0% | +0.20% | -1.80% |
| Between 15 January 2025 and 14 April 2025 | 8.33% | 0% | +4.33% | +1.33% |
| Not before 15 April 2025 | 90.47% | 0% | -4.53% | +0.47% |