Between 1 July 2024 and 31 December 2024, how many total fatalities will occur in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) provinces of Ituri, Nord-Kivu, and Sud-Kivu due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?

Started Jul 19, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The UN's Group of Experts on the DRC reported on the ongoing conflicts in the country to the UN Security Council in late spring 2024 (UN). Among the findings was that Rwandan military forces were operating in support of the rebel group M23, and fighting over natural resource control between factions in Ituri resumed (AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, France 24). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Explorer (ACLED). On the left side of the screen, (1) select "Fatality Counts," (2) select "All Event Types," (3) select "Custom Date Range" and set the date range as appropriate, (4) select only "Africa," (5) select only "Democratic Republic of Congo," (6) select "Yes," which will present a drop-down menu from which you will select "Ituri," "Nord-Kivu," and "Sud-Kivu," (7) select "Admin1," (8) select "No," (9) select "No," (10) select "Yes" and choose "Month," and click "Run Calculations." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 2,078 total fatalities in Ituri, Nord-Kivu, and Sud-Kivu due to conflicts and protests in the first half (1 January through 30 June) of 2024. Data will be accessed for resolution no sooner than 17 January 2025, unless ACLED reports fatalities in excess of 10,000 before 17 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Fewer than 1,400 54.10% +0.40% -1.60% +20.10%
At least 1,400, but fewer than 2,800 27.40% -0.30% +1.70% -15.40%
At least 2,800, but fewer than 4,200 3.20% -0.10% -0.10% -4.10%
At least 4,200, but fewer than 5,600 2.00% -0.10% -0.10% -0.70%
At least 5,600, but fewer than 7,000 6.10% -0.10% -0.10% +0.10%
At least 7,000, but fewer than 10,000 6.90% +0.20% +0.20% +0.10%
10,000 or more 0.30% 0% 0% -0.10%

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