Vasu-Tripathi asks:
What will the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) propose as the renewable volume obligation (RVO) for biomass-based diesel fuel in 2026?
Closing Apr 05, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Biofuel market participants are lobbying the EPA to increase the biomass-based diesel RVO for 2026 to a "robust" level that would support industry growth (Biodiesel Magazine, Biomass Magazine). The EPA reportedly plans on publishing a proposed rule by March 2025 (PA Petroleum Organization). On 12 July 2023, the EPA published a final rule establishing various biofuel volume requirements for 2023 through 2025 pursuant to the Clean Air Act (Federal Register, see Table I.A.1-1, EPA, Energy Information Administration). The question will close upon a proposed rule being published by the EPA in the Federal Register (Federal Register - EPA).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 3.10 billion gallons | 3.50% | -0.20% | -0.20% | -0.20% |
| At least 3.10 billion gallons, but less than 3.35 billion gallons | 1.00% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% |
| At least 3.35 billion gallons, but less than 3.60 billion gallons | 3.50% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.60% |
| At least 3.60 billion gallons, but less than 3.85 billion gallons | 17.60% | -0.20% | +0.60% | +0.50% |
| At least 3.85 billion gallons, but less than 4.10 billion gallons | 28.00% | +0.20% | -1.00% | -1.60% |
| At least 4.10 billion gallons, but less than 4.35 billion gallons | 16.60% | +0.40% | +0.20% | +0.10% |
| At least 4.35 billion gallons, but less than 4.60 billion gallons | 8.00% | 0% | 0% | -0.30% |
| 4.60 billion gallons or more | 3.70% | 0% | 0% | -0.20% |
| A proposed rule will not be published in the Federal Register before 5 April 2025 | 18.10% | 0% | +0.60% | +2.40% |