When will an application be filed with Germany's Federal Constitutional Court to declare Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, or AfD) unconstitutional?

Started Jul 19, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Various political groups in Germany are pushing for the AfD to be banned (Deutsche Welle, BBC, Le Monde). Three entities (the Bundestag, the Bundesrat, and the Federal Government) can file such an application (German Federal Constitutional Court). Local elections are scheduled for three German states (Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia) in September 2024 (German Federal Returning Officer - Election Schedule).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 1 September 2024 0% 0% 0% -1.90%
Between 1 September 2024 and 31 December 2024 7.00% 0% -1.00% -1.30%
Between 1 January 2025 and 30 April 2025 8.00% 0% 0% +3.10%
Not before 1 May 2025 85.00% 0% +1.00% +0.10%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username