Will the Men's Marathon Swimming competition take place in the River Seine at the 2024 Olympics?
Closed Aug 09, 2024 05:30AM UTC
France invested heavily to make the River Seine safe to use for certain swimming competitions, but E. coli levels remained elevated as of July 2024 (ESPN, ABC News). The men's competition is scheduled for 9 August 2024 (Olympics - Marathon Swimming Schedule). The question will close as of the event commencing with athletes swimming in the river, though the question would close early if use of the river is officially canceled or the event is postponed to a date after 11 August 2024.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 8 August 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 95% | |
No | 5% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 37 |
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 164 | |
Number of Forecasts | 162 |
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 431 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |