Who will be the 2024 Democratic Party nominee for US president?
Started
Jul 21, 2024 08:30PM UTC
Closed Aug 06, 2024 03:00AM UTC
Closed Aug 06, 2024 03:00AM UTC
Challenges
On 21 July 2024, President Joe Biden announced that he would no longer seek reelection (X - Joe Biden, Politico). If no presidential candidate has been nominated by the Democratic Party before 23 August 2024, the close date will be extended.
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The question closed "Kamala Harris" with a closing date of 5 August 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Beshear | 0% | |
| Pete Buttigieg | 0% | |
| Hillary Clinton | 1% | |
| Roy Cooper | 0% | |
| Kamala Harris | 96% | |
| Mark Kelly | 1% | |
| Amy Klobuchar | 0% | |
| Wes Moore | 0% | |
| Gavin Newsom | 0% | |
| Michelle Obama | 0% | |
| Jared Polis | 0% | |
| J.B. Pritzker | 0% | |
| Gina Raimondo | 0% | |
| Josh Shapiro | 1% | |
| Tim Walz | 0% | |
| Raphael Warnock | 0% | |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0% | |
| Someone else | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 197 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 139 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 344 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 315 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
