Will the World Health Organization (WHO) confirm a case of polio in a resident of the Gaza Strip before 8 October 2024?

Started Jul 26, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 22, 2024 10:14PM UTC

After vaccine-derived poliovirus was found in sewage in the Gaza Strip in July 2024, fears of a major outbreak of the disease have spiked among officials and international organizations (UN News, USA Today, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the World Health Organization (WHO), and the question will close as of the confirmation. WHO's mere acknowledgement of a case being reported, either by the Gaza Health Ministry or other Gaza agency, alone will not count. A case in a Gaza resident who is evacuated from the Gaza Strip will count so long as transmission is believed to have occurred in the Gaza Strip. A confirmed case in a member of the Israeli armed forces will not count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 22 August 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 78%
No 22%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 36
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 164
Number of Forecasts 88
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 431
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.565359
2.
-0.4377
3.
-0.399537
4.
-0.292978
5.
-0.283981

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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