Will the World Health Organization (WHO) confirm a case of polio in a resident of the Gaza Strip before 8 October 2024?
Closed Aug 22, 2024 10:14PM UTC
After vaccine-derived poliovirus was found in sewage in the Gaza Strip in July 2024, fears of a major outbreak of the disease have spiked among officials and international organizations (UN News, USA Today, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the World Health Organization (WHO), and the question will close as of the confirmation. WHO's mere acknowledgement of a case being reported, either by the Gaza Health Ministry or other Gaza agency, alone will not count. A case in a Gaza resident who is evacuated from the Gaza Strip will count so long as transmission is believed to have occurred in the Gaza Strip. A confirmed case in a member of the Israeli armed forces will not count.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 22 August 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 78% | |
No | 22% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 36 |
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 161 | |
Number of Forecasts | 88 |
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 426 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |