What will be the average Air Quality Index value in New Delhi, India, in August 2024?

Started Jul 26, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 31, 2024 07:01AM UTC
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A report from Swiss air quality technology company IQAir indicated that 83 of the 100 cities with the worst air pollution in the world were in India in 2023 (CNN). The question will be suspended on 30 August 2024 and the outcome determined using data from AirNow once complete data for the month of August 2024 are available (AirNow.gov). To access the resolution data on the site, choose "New Delhi" under "Select a City," click on the "Historical" tab, and download the file for "2024 PM2.5 YTD." Add all positive valid data points for the column titled "AQI" (invalid entries are coded as -999, and valid data points are labeled "Valid" under "QC Name") with an "8" under "Month" and divide the sum by the number of valid data points. Averages in August 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 were, respectively, 91.84, 68.94, 98.85, 82.28, and 91.62. If the named source changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

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The question closed "At least 60.00, but less than 70.00" with a closing date of 1 September 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 60.00 1%
At least 60.00, but less than 70.00 85%
At least 70.00, but less than 80.00 10%
At least 80.00, but less than 90.00 1%
At least 90.00, but less than 100.00 1%
At least 100.00, but less than 110.00 1%
At least 110.00, but less than 120.00 1%
At least 120.00, but less than 130.00 0%
At least 130.00, but less than 140.00 0%
At least 140.00, but less than 150.00 0%
150.00 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 20
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 139
Number of Forecasts 142
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 315
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.063317
2.
-0.051587
3.
-0.041038
4.
-0.035131
5.
-0.030903

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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